Adedokun Waliyu 
Refiners in Japan are increasing crude oil imports from Nigeria, highlighting the short-term challenges of replacing Middle Eastern supply disrupted by the Iran war.
Refinery operations stood at 67.8% of capacity for the week ending April 11, slightly up from 67.7% the previous week but still far below the over 80% levels recorded before the conflict began in late February, according to data from the Petroleum Association of Japan.
Officials say the outlook may improve as Japan has released oil from its national reserves and secured alternative supplies for more than half of the volume it imported last May through the Strait of Hormuz. Typically, about 95% of Japan’s crude imports come from the Middle East.
However, Japanese refineries face technical limitations, as most are designed to process medium-sour crude commonly sourced from the Middle East.
In addition to Nigeria, countries such as Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, and Angola are expected to benefit from Japan’s increased demand for alternative crude sources.
An analyst at Rystad Energy, Nithin Prakash, noted that Japan could increase non-Middle Eastern crude to 30–50% of its supply mix in the short term, though fully replacing Middle Eastern imports remains difficult.
He added that refiners may blend Middle Eastern crude with light-sweet crude from the United States and West Africa, as well as medium grades from the Caspian region and parts of Latin America. This adjustment is expected to boost gasoline and naphtha output while reducing diesel and jet fuel production.
Meanwhile, the Petroleum Association of Japan has suspended publication of the country’s petroleum product stock data due to changes in supply patterns.
