Olivia Chow’s Lead In The Toronto Mayoral Election Shrinks After Rival Gets Surprise Endorsement, Poll Finds

Olivia Chow’s lead in Monday’s mayoral election has narrowed significantly, with rival Ana Bailão getting a bump after being endorsed by former mayor John Tory, according to a new Forum Research poll for the Toronto Star.

The Friday survey of 1,037 Torontonians pegged support for Chow, a former NDP MP, at 29 per cent of decided voters, down three points from the previous week, while Bailão’s support jumped seven points to 20 per cent.

That would put Bailão, a former city councillor who was endorsed by Tory last Wednesday, firmly in second place, followed by former police chief Mark Saunders at 15 per cent, former Toronto Sun columnist Anthony Furey at 11 per cent, Coun. Josh Matlow at eight per cent, former Liberal MPP Mitzie Hunter at five per cent, and Coun. Brad Bradford at three per cent.

Twelve per cent said they didn’t know their choice for mayor. The interactive voice response survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points 19 times out of 20.

“While Bailão’s surge will likely be too little, too late, it does represent the biggest one week gain for any candidate in the campaign and has clearly cemented Bailão’s position in second place,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff.

“One wonders what would have happened if endorsements for Bailão had occurred a week earlier in the campaign.”

He noted that the results are the third consecutive weekly drop of three percentage points for Chow, who has consistently led polls since the start of the 12-week election.

Polls have also said that Torontonians would re-elect Tory, who resigned in February after the Star revealed his improper relationship with a woman that started when she was his junior subordinate, if he had jumped into the race.

Last Wednesday, Bailão’s campaign released a video in which Tory, who had previously vowed to stay neutral in the election, urged people to back his former housing advocate, whom he called a “fighter,” a “negotiator” and a “leader.”

The Forum poll suggests that the surprise endorsement had a greater impact on voters than Premier Doug Ford’s endorsement of fellow conservative Saunders, whose support remained unchanged in the latest survey.

A Liaison Strategies poll conducted Friday to Saturday saw Bailão with a five-point bump over the previous week, but had Chow still well out ahead with the support of 31 per cent of decided voters compared to Bailão’s 17 per cent.

That survey of 1,086 Torontonians had Saunders at 16 per cent, Furey at 11 per cent, Matlow at 10 per cent, Hunter at six per cent, Bradford at four per cent, and another candidate at five per cent. Nine per cent were undecided.

The margin of error for the interactive voice recording survey is plus or minus 2.97 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

A third recent poll, of 1,481 Torontonians by Mainstreet Research conducted Thursday, saw Bailão’s support rise to 22 per cent of decided voters compared to Chow’s 30 per cent support.

Mainstreet pegged Furey’s support at 13 per cent, followed by Saunders at 12 per cent, Matlow at nine per cent, Hunter at five per cent, and Bradford tied with policy analyst Chloe Brown at two per cent support of decided voters.

Prominent candidates were busy pitching their platforms Saturday while campaign officials readied their important “get out the vote” effort for Monday to ensure as many of their supporters as possible get to the ballot box.