Adedokun Waliyu 
As the federal conservatives deal with another caucus defection and criticism over competing messaging regarding the American trade war, the Mark Carney Liberals continue to pull ahead in the polls.
According to numbers released Monday by Liaison Strategies, the Liberals lead over the Tories grew from nine to 12 points over the past week — holding 45% of the decided and leaning vote over the 33% enjoyed by the Pierre Poilievre Conservatives.
“If an election were held today, The Liberals would win comfortably — assuming they can hold these numbers through to Election Day,” said Liaison Strategies’ David Valentin, so said that despite the growing lead, nothing is set in stone.
“Campaigns matter, and a lot can change — that’s why they may look to lock in a majority sooner through more floor crossings and key by-elections.”
Rumours of a spring election have been swirling around Parliament Hill since the beginning of the year as the PM rides high on a wave of popularity.
Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this year garnered intense attention and praise around the world, describing the U.S. trade war and drastic shifts in American foreign policy as a “rupture,” and warned the world’s “middle powers” — obsensibly the UK, greater Europe and Australia — that “if you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.”
As well, increased nationalism in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland and supposed potshots at Canadian sovereignty — largely seen as the key to Carney’s victory in the most recent federal election — is also seen as a factor playing in the Liberals’ favour.
When asked to gauge the job Carney’s doing as PM, 63% said they approve, compared to 32% who reported disapproval, and 5% who said they weren’t sure.
Of those asked if they held favourable or unfavourable views of Poilievre, 54% said they held unfavourable views, while 37% reported favourable opinions — 5% said they weren’t familiar with Poilievre, and 4% weren’t sure.
With the minority Liberals an eyelash away from securing a post-election majority, the Liberals are also facing a number of byelections to fill three resignation-related vacancies in the House of Commons — Chrystia Freeland’s University-Rosedale seat, Bill Blair in Scarborough-southwest, and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne, the results of which were annulled by Elections Canada earlier this month due to ballot errors.
While the Liberals are expected to easily win the two Toronto byelections, many pundits predict the Bloc Québécois as a favourite to win Terrebonne.
“It is fairly clear to me the Toronto by-elections would already be underway were it not for the Terrebonne court decision,” Valentin said.
“My expectation is once the Prime Minister can call all the by-elections he will do so at that time, or shortly thereafter for a date that is not a statutory holiday.
“I’ll caveat that if someone else resigns, depending who, he might once again have to wait.”
The poll was conducted between Feb. 9 and Feb. 21 among a random sample of 1,000 Canadian adults, with a margin of error of ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
