Canadian Housing Prices Remain Flat In Third Quarter: Royal LePage Report

Home sales activity flatlined across most major Canadian markets in the third quarter, according to Royal LePage’s third-quarter 2026 Home Price Update and Market Forecast released on Thursday.

The report says the national aggregate home price decreased 0.8% year over year to $810,000, down 0.6% compared with the second quarter.

“It’s exactly what we expected the entire year, and the message has really been very similar from the end of 2025, fourth quarter, up until right now, and it’s been a flat market,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and team leader at Royal LePage Signature Realty.

“We have not seen a jump. We have not seen a drop. It has just been very flat.”

Canadian Single-Family Detached Home Prices

When broken down by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home decreased 0.5% year over year to $856,500, while the median price of a condominium fell 1.5% to $571,900.

“Is it consumer confidence on U.S. tariffs? It could be,” Zigelstein said. “Is it consumer confidence on unemployment, on trade across the world, not just the United States? And could it just be a dollar issue that they’re looking at the cost of gasoline and their groceries going up substantially that they don’t want to necessarily move to another house.”

Meanwhile, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) market recorded a year-over-year decline of 3.7%, with the aggregate home price falling to $1,073,100 in the third quarter of 2026.

On a quarterly basis, the aggregate price of a home in the GTA declined 2.6%, according to the report.

“I don’t think that’s a high percentage,” Zigelstein said. “What you’re getting is, you’re getting an average. You’re getting an average to say that, ‘Yes, product is still moving. Yes, it’s much slower. Yes, we know that the prices have come down. However, there is not a dramatic difference from year to year.’”

GTA Single-Family Detached Home Prices

Broken down by housing type, the median price of a single-family detached home in the GTA decreased 2.8% year over year to $1,364,400 in the third quarter of 2026. The median price of a condominium declined 4.1% to $641,500 during the same period.

In the city of Toronto, the aggregate price of a home decreased 0.5% year over year to $1,071,500 in the third quarter of 2026, but declined 4.4% compared with the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home fell 5.9% year over year to $1,457,300, while the median price of a condominium remained relatively flat, increasing just 0.4% to $647,400.

For the past year, the Bank of Canada has left its target for the overnight lending rate unchanged at 2.25%. However, with inflation under pressure, economists expect the central bank to begin raising rates again in the near future.

The bank’s two remaining interest rate announcements for 2026 are scheduled for October 28 and December 9.

“Do I see that there’s going to be any major change?” Zigelstein said. “I don’t think a quarter-point change either way is going to suddenly stop the market or throw it into a frenzy and people are going to start buying. I don’t think the interest rates right now are the reason why people aren’t buying. I think it’s just consumer confidence across the board, which is why they are taking their time.”

Outlook For The Fourth Quarter

Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase by 1% in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter last year.

However, it expects the aggregate home price in the GTA to decrease by 2% over the same period.

“I think we’re going to see a little bit of an improvement going into 2027,” Zigelstein said. “I’m hoping what that means is that volume will go up a little bit because then you’ll have a product that’s been sitting on the market for quite some time and hopefully start to sell. But I do think we’ll have a fairly flat market heading into 2027 as well.”