Adedokun Waliyu 
The numbers don’t add up for the Maple Leafs.
Since the 4 Nations Face-Off break ended, the Leafs have played 11 games, won six, lost four in regulation and lost one in a shootout. Three of the Leafs’ victories required a decisive goal in overtime or a shootout. So that’s three regulation wins since the break, a fact that isn’t befitting for a team that thinks it can go a long playoff run. Furthermore, the Leafs have won once in regulation in their past nine, that coming by one goal in New York against the Rangers on Feb. 28.
The past six games, a string during which the Leafs have gone 1-4-1, have come under a microscope.
Since the end of the break, and before National Hockey League games on Sunday, the Leafs were 30th on the penalty kill at 67.7%. They’ve allowed at least one power-play goal in each of their past five games; if the Calgary Flames, the visitors on Monday night at Scotiabank Arena, score on the power play, it will be the first time since Jan. 24-Feb. 8, 2021, that the Leafs would allow a power-play goal in at least six consecutive games. That bad run just over four years ago, during the all-Canadian North Division COVID season, stretched to seven games.
The goals against have been spread around assistant coach Lane Lambert’s penalty-killing units.
Mitch Marner and Jake McCabe have been on the ice for four of the past six opponent power-play goals; Auston Matthews and Simon Benoit have been on ice for three. Chris Tanev, Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton have been on the ice for two.
Perhaps the Leafs will get it right against a Flames power play that was 18th in the NHL through games on Saturday. Unless there is some tightening up and better goaltending from either Anthony Stolarz or Joseph Woll, don’t hold your breath.
Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares all are averaging at least a point a game since the break. Marner is close, with nine points in 11 games.
The good since the break: The Leafs have scored 3.64 goals a game, putting them sixth in the NHL in that span. The bad: The Leafs have allowed 3.64 goals a game, the fifth-most in the NHL.
Another area of concern has been the goaltending. The Leafs aren’t getting the game-saving stops that are required every so often, and both Stolarz and Woll have posted a sub-.900 save percentage since the break. Stolarz has a mark of .894 in eight games; Woll is at .871 in four games.
As much as the Leafs in front of the netminders have to bear down with a lot more consistency than they have been, we can’t omit Stolarz and Woll from that conversation.
In the 4-2 loss against the Ottawa Senators on Saturday, Stolarz made his 25th start of 2024-25, establishing a career high.
“I feel good,” Stolarz said. “You’re a professional athlete. Your job is to be ready, be in shape. I’ve been working hard in the gym and (there’s) no fatigue, feel good out there and moving well. Everything has been fine.”
The players will tell you it’s only about the day at hand and the areas in which they need to be better in order to beat the Flames, who have fallen out of the second wildcard spot in the Western Conference.
Never mind matching the level of urgency that the Flames undoubtedly will bring as they start a four-game trip.
The Leafs are 10 points ahead of the Flames in the overall standings and are a better team than Calgary. Why not set the tone and force the Flames into a spot where they have to keep pace, and not the other way around?
Leafs coach Craig Berube, with his matter-of-fact manner, doesn’t mind laying bare what has to be done for the team to find its way.
It’s on the coaching staff and the players as a group to get it right.
“There’s certain stretches you go through where it’s not there, and you just keep battling away as a coach, and you have to hold your players accountable to it,” Berube said. “And they have to hold themselves accountable to it.
“They need to make their mind up in the room, the importance of the start of the game and 60 minutes, of urgency, details, doing things right, playing our game.
“It’s about us getting together here and putting 60 minutes together.”
We wouldn’t want to overstate it, but it’s paramount the Leafs get back to the kind of hockey they’ve played earlier in the season. Not only has Toronto been caught in the Atlantic Division standings by the Tampa Bay Lightning — they’re tied with 81 points — the Senators are just four points back.
For now, the Leafs can’t worry about trying to win the division. It’s about ensuring they don’t fall further and potentially give up home-ice advantage in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Once they’re done with the Flames, the Leafs will play host to Colorado on Wednesday to end the four-game home stand, and then head out for road games against the Rangers and Nashville Predators.
“It’s not going to be perfect throughout the year, but when there’s slippage, it’s just trying to get back on track as quickly as possible,” Matthews said. “It’s important for us to just take a look in the mirror, hit the reset button. We have an important week coming up with a lot of games, so we just got to push through whatever the adversity is that we’re going through and recommit to one another.”
