Adedokun Waliyu 
Canada’s oil sands will produce 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, a 15% increase from current levels, as companies focus on investing in optimizing existing projects and making them more efficient, a report from S&P Global Commodity Insights said on Thursday.
Oil sands production has increased 1.3 million bpd over the past decade and currently stands at 3.3 million bpd.
S&P Global’s new projection that oil sands output will reach 3.8 million bpd by 2030 is 100,000 bpd higher than its previous growth forecast.
Canada is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, with around two-thirds of its 4.9 million bpd of output coming from northern Alberta’s oil sands.
The report said production would plateau towards the end of the decade due to a slowing inventory of optimization projects, uncertainty stemming from a planned Canadian government oil and gas emissions cap and the need for new pipeline takeaway capacity as soon as 2026.
The oil sands hold the world’s third-largest bitumen reserves and the pace of production growth will impact global oil supplies as well as economic activity in Canada.
“Producers have displayed a blend of discipline and adaptability with an ongoing focus on maximizing existing assets through optimization and efficiency while maintaining stronger balance sheets from comparatively higher oil prices,” said Celina Hwang, director of North American Crude Oil Markets at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
