Adedokun Waliyu 
Third, that’s where Justin Trudeau’s Liberals rank among voters born after 1979. Those are the shock numbers from the latest poll by Abacus Data that doesn’t offer any good news for Trudeau.
The truth is, Trudeau’s Liberals don’t lead in any age group just like they don’t lead in any part of the country.
Those who follow polling closely know that it’s the smaller breakdowns such as age, gender and regional voting intentions that matter more than the national numbers. It’s impressive that Abacus has Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives leading Trudeau’s Liberals by 12 points – 38% to 26% voter support – but that wouldn’t matter if it was driven by the Conservatives getting 90% of all men in Saskatchewan and Alberta voting for them.
Poilievre’s party already has most of those seats and generates lots of support in those areas. If he wants to win the next election, he needs to win over voters who used to back the Liberals and have soured on Trudeau.
This is why Poilievre leading strongly among voters between the ages of 18 and 44 is so important, it’s these voters who put Trudeau into office in the first place and now, eight years on, this same group is having second thoughts.
Among those aged 18-29, Abacus finds 33% back the Conservatives compared to 26% backing the NDP and 23% supporting the Liberals. For those aged 30-44, the Conservatives have the support of 42% of voters while the NDP picks up 23% and the Liberals 22%.
This is one poll, others may have different numbers, but we’ve seen in recent Angus Reid and Leger surveys that those age groups have shifted to the Conservatives and the NDP has, in some instances, started to overtake the Liberals.
For the record, the Conservatives also lead handily in the 45-59 year-old category and among those 60 and over. It’s the 60 and over group that is the best demographic for Trudeau’s Liberals and even there, they only garner 30% support compared to 39% for Poilievre and the Conservatives.
These numbers have to be sending shockwaves through the Liberal Party HQ.
Young people leaving Trudeau’s Liberals would have been unthinkable even two years ago. In the last Abacus poll showing age breakdowns before the 2021 election, Trudeau’s Liberals were polling at 43% among those aged 18-29 and competitive in every other age group.
They also had a 10 point lead over the Conservatives among women in 2021 compared to what is now a nine point lead.
The Conservatives have long held a lead over Trudeau and the Liberals among male voters but struggled to bring women into the fold. Now, in poll after poll, women are more likely to say they will vote Conservative than Liberal.
The latest Abacus numbers have 35% of women saying they will vote blue compared to 26% for the red team and 22% for the orange team. Among men, 41% say they will vote Conservative, 25% Liberal and 16% NDP.
These are shocking numbers for Trudeau’s Liberals and should send shockwaves through the entire apparatus. It’s one poll, voters are fickle, things could swing back but this is the strongest poll in Poilievre’s favour in a string of polls showing momentum for the Conservative leader.
Abacus also found 56% of Canadians think Trudeau shouldn’t run again, just 27% think he should and 17% don’t know. Among those who voted Liberal in the last election, one in four say Trudeau should go.
Meanwhile, perceptions of Poilievre are improving and according to Abacus, those new ads are working.
Summer isn’t often a time for a significant political shift, in fact, governing parties often do better during the summer recess with the daily glare of Question Period creating bad headlines for them.
This summer, there has been a marked shift that started in June and continues now. If this shift holds, get ready for big changes in Canadian politics.
